A data-driven analysis of STR market conditions, investment returns, and the opportunity window for DSCR loan borrowers in 2026 — powered by AirDNA, Zillow, and Fannie Mae data.
PUBLISHED: MARCH 2026 · DATA: AIRDNA, FANNIE MAE, ZILLOW
Two critical metrics — the STR monthly premium and investor ROI — have both rebounded sharply from their 2023 troughs and are forecast to keep climbing through 2027.
The monthly earnings gap between avg. STR revenue and avg. mortgage payment. Crushed by rate hikes in 2022–23, the premium is recovering strongly into the forecast period.
ROI peaked at 30.8% in 2021, bottomed at 2.8% in late 2023, and has rebounded to 10.3%. Supply growth is near historic lows at 4.3% YOY.
After surging from ~$185K to over $615K between 2000–2022, STR-market home values have plateaued near $600K. That stability — combined with rising rental income — is improving return math for 2026 buyers.
Zillow Home Value Index weighted by zip code STR listing count. Values stabilized in the $575K–$610K range since 2023 — down from the $615K peak. Lower prices + higher rents = better deals.
Since October 2024, most STR-friendly markets have softened — improving acquisition economics for 2026 buyers. Coastal and urban markets offer the best entry-point improvement.
Supply is tight, ROI is rebounding, premiums are recovering — and investors are taking notice.
Nearly two-thirds of STR investors plan to acquire at least one property in the next 12 months — the strongest buying intent since 2021.
YOY listing growth has collapsed from a 2022 peak of 22.8% down to just 4.3% — the lowest supply acceleration in the dataset. Less competition entering the market.
Historically, improving returns drive new supply — but with a 1–2 year lag. Investors entering in 2026 get in before the next supply wave catches up.
Host cities are set for major short-term revenue windfalls. DSCR loans close in weeks — fast enough to be live before the tournament starts.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup — co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico — is expected to drive substantial RevPAR gains in participating cities. Savvy STR investors are already positioning in these markets.
DSCR loans are purpose-built for this opportunity: qualify on rental income, not your W-2, and close fast enough to get properties live before group stage matches begin.
DSCR loans qualify on your property's rental income — not your W-2. Whether you're targeting a World Cup city or a coastal market with softening prices, we can close in as little as 2–3 weeks.